Atalanta
Juventus won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Juventus
Postmatch editorial
Juventus found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Atalanta 0-1 Juventus. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Jérémie Boga put the first mark on the match 48', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Atalanta led Total shots 22-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Atalanta also shaded Corners 13-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Atalanta the likeliest result at 42.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 42.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atalanta
42.3%
Market result
Juventus
42.9%
BTTS
Yes
56.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
AtalantaAtalanta
Juventus
22
7
Corners
AtalantaAtalanta
Juventus
13
2
Shots on target
AtalantaAtalanta
Juventus
3
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.