Atalanta
Bologna won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Bologna
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Atalanta 0-1 Bologna. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Riccardo Orsolini scored 78' for Bologna.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bologna led Shots on target 1-5. Bologna also shaded Corners 2-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Atalanta the likeliest result at 50.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atalanta at 57.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Atalanta
50.6%
Market result
Atalanta
57.8%
BTTS
Yes
59.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
BolognaAtalanta
Bologna
1
5
Corners
BolognaAtalanta
Bologna
2
5
Possession
BolognaAtalanta
Bologna
45%
55%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.