Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
Tottenham Hotspur
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Aston Villa 1-2 Tottenham Hotspur. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Conor Gallagher put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Tottenham Hotspur led Shots on target 1-5. Tottenham Hotspur also shaded Total shots 5-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Aston Villa the likeliest result at 56.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Aston Villa at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Aston Villa
56.0%
Market result
Aston Villa
44.4%
BTTS
Yes
52.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Tottenham HotspurAston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
1
5
Total shots
Tottenham HotspurAston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
5
10
Possession
Tottenham HotspurAston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur
45%
55%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.