Aston Villa
Brentford won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Brentford
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Aston Villa 0-1 Brentford. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Dango Ouattara put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Aston Villa led Total shots 27-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Aston Villa also shaded Shots on target 5-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Aston Villa the likeliest result at 57.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Aston Villa at 43.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.6%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Aston Villa
57.9%
Market result
Aston Villa
43.9%
BTTS
Yes
55.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Aston VillaAston Villa
Brentford
27
6
Shots on target
Aston VillaAston Villa
Brentford
5
2
Corners
Aston VillaAston Villa
Brentford
12
1
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.