Postmatch editorial
Suriname made the numbers look right
The final score was Aruba 0-6 Suriname. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Nigel Hasselbaink put the first mark on the match 20', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Suriname led Shots on target 0-12. Aruba also shaded Possession 92%-8%.
Before kickoff, our model made Suriname the likeliest result at 60.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Suriname at 96.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (61.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Nitrogen Sports. The market was offering 1.11 against a fair line of 1.10. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Suriname
60.5%
Market result
Suriname
96.2%
BTTS
Yes
61.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
SurinameAruba
Suriname
0
12
Possession
ArubaAruba
Suriname
92%
8%
Corners
SurinameAruba
Suriname
0
19
Model edge
2
Nitrogen Sports
Market odd
1.11
Fair odd
1.10
Edge
0.9%
Stake
4.27u
That ticket matched the final outcome.