Postmatch editorial
Haiti made the numbers look right
The final score was Aruba 0-5 Haiti. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Mondy Prunier scored 86' for Haiti.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Haiti led Shots on target 3-10. Haiti also shaded Total shots 7-24.
Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 77.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Haiti at 94.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at 1xbet. The market was offering 27.00 against a fair line of 22.90. That translated to an edge of 17.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Haiti
77.4%
Market result
Haiti
94.3%
BTTS
Yes
53.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
HaitiAruba
Haiti
3
10
Total shots
HaitiAruba
Haiti
7
24
Possession
HaitiAruba
Haiti
28%
72%
Model edge
X
1xbet
Market odd
27.00
Fair odd
22.90
Edge
17.9%
Stake
0.18u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.