Postmatch editorial

Curacao found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Aruba 0-2 Curacao. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Xander Severina scored 90+6' for Curacao.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Curacao led Total shots 4-27. Curacao also shaded Shots on target 2-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Aruba the likeliest result at 71.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Curacao at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pncl. The market was offering 1.32 against a fair line of 1.30. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Aruba

71.0%

Miss

Market result

Curacao

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Curacao

Aruba

Curacao

4

27

Shots on target

Curacao

Aruba

Curacao

2

5

Corners

Curacao

Aruba

Curacao

1

9

Model edge

2

Pncl

Market odd

1.32

Fair odd

1.30

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.72u

That ticket matched the final outcome.