Postmatch editorial
Canada made the numbers look right
The final score was Aruba 0-7 Canada. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jonathan David scored 90' for Canada.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Canada led Shots on target 0-12. Canada also shaded Corners 0-11.
Before kickoff, our model made Canada the likeliest result at 47.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Canada at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Canada
47.3%
Market result
Canada
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
57.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
CanadaAruba
Canada
0
12
Corners
CanadaAruba
Canada
0
11
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.