Postmatch editorial
Arsenal turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Arsenal 3-0 Fulham. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Viktor Gyökeres put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Arsenal led Shots on target 9-1. Arsenal also shaded Total shots 18-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Arsenal the likeliest result at 68.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Arsenal at 69.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Arsenal
68.4%
Market result
Arsenal
69.0%
BTTS
No
57.3%
Match numbers
Shots on target
ArsenalArsenal
Fulham
9
1
Total shots
ArsenalArsenal
Fulham
18
10
Corners
FulhamArsenal
Fulham
3
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.