Arsenal
AFC Bournemouth won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
AFC Bournemouth
Postmatch editorial
AFC Bournemouth bent the night away from the script
The final score was Arsenal 1-2 AFC Bournemouth. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Eli Kroupi put the first mark on the match 17', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Arsenal led Corners 10-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Arsenal also shaded Total shots 15-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Arsenal the likeliest result at 64.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Arsenal at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.9%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Arsenal
64.7%
Market result
Arsenal
66.7%
BTTS
No
53.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
ArsenalArsenal
AFC Bournemouth
10
1
Total shots
ArsenalArsenal
AFC Bournemouth
15
8
Possession
ArsenalArsenal
AFC Bournemouth
52%
48%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.