Postmatch editorial

Armenia bent the night away from the script

The final score was Armenia 2-1 Republic of Ireland. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Eduard Spertsyan put the first mark on the match 45+1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Armenia led Total shots 15-8. Armenia also shaded Shots on target 8-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Republic of Ireland the likeliest result at 47.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Republic of Ireland at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cashpoint. The market was offering 1.97 against a fair line of 1.90. That translated to an edge of 3.7% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Republic of Ireland

47.6%

Miss

Market result

Republic of Ireland

52.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Armenia

Armenia

Republic of Ireland

15

8

Shots on target

Armenia

Armenia

Republic of Ireland

8

5

Corners

Republic of Ireland

Armenia

Republic of Ireland

1

2

Model edge

2

Cashpoint

Market odd

1.97

Fair odd

1.90

Edge

3.7%

Stake

0.91u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.