Argentina
Argentina won after full-time.
4 - 1
FT
Brazil
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Argentina delivered it
The final score was Argentina 4-1 Brazil. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Julián Álvarez put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Argentina led Shots on target 7-1. Argentina also shaded Total shots 12-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Argentina the likeliest result at 49.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Argentina at 43.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.1%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Argentina
49.9%
Market result
Argentina
43.3%
BTTS
Yes
50.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ArgentinaArgentina
Brazil
7
1
Total shots
ArgentinaArgentina
Brazil
12
3
Corners
ArgentinaArgentina
Brazil
6
0
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.