Postmatch editorial

Ararat-Armenia flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Ararat-Armenia 2-1 Celje. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Celje struck first through Svit Seslar 22', but Ararat-Armenia recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Celje led Shots on target 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Celje also shaded Total shots 8-15.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Celje the favourite at 41.7% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Celje

41.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Celje

Ararat-Armenia

Celje

2

5

Total shots

Celje

Ararat-Armenia

Celje

8

15

Possession

Celje

Ararat-Armenia

Celje

38%

62%