Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Cuba
The final score was Antigua and Barbuda 0-1 Cuba. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Pedro Bravo put the first mark on the match 45+8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cuba led Shots on target 1-3. Cuba also shaded Total shots 4-19.
Before kickoff, our model made Antigua and Barbuda the likeliest result at 42.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cuba at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.7%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 1.55 against a fair line of 1.52. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Antigua and Barbuda
42.5%
Market result
Cuba
64.5%
BTTS
Yes
53.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
CubaAntigua and Barbuda
Cuba
1
3
Total shots
CubaAntigua and Barbuda
Cuba
4
19
Possession
CubaAntigua and Barbuda
Cuba
27%
73%
Model edge
2
10bet
Market odd
1.55
Fair odd
1.52
Edge
2.0%
Stake
1.25u
That ticket matched the final outcome.