Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was Antigua and Barbuda 1-1 Bermuda. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from S. Ming 90', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bermuda led Total shots 7-23, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bermuda also shaded Shots on target 4-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Antigua and Barbuda the likeliest result at 43.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Antigua and Barbuda at 50.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betfair. The market was offering 2.12 against a fair line of 2.04. That translated to an edge of 3.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Antigua and Barbuda
43.2%
Market result
Antigua and Barbuda
50.3%
BTTS
Yes
62.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
BermudaAntigua and Barbuda
Bermuda
7
23
Shots on target
BermudaAntigua and Barbuda
Bermuda
4
8
Corners
BermudaAntigua and Barbuda
Bermuda
2
6
Model edge
1
Betfair
Market odd
2.12
Fair odd
2.04
Edge
3.9%
Stake
0.84u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.