Postmatch editorial
Panama turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Anguilla 0-13 Panama. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Francisco Palacios scored 90' for Panama.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Anguilla led Shots on target 17-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Anguilla also shaded Possession 82%-18%.
Before kickoff, our model made Panama the likeliest result at 39.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Panama at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (65.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 34.00 against a fair line of 28.50. That translated to an edge of 19.3% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Panama
39.7%
Market result
Panama
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
65.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
AnguillaAnguilla
Panama
17
0
Possession
AnguillaAnguilla
Panama
82%
18%
Corners
AnguillaAnguilla
Panama
14
0
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
34.00
Fair odd
28.50
Edge
19.3%
Stake
0.24u
That ticket matched the final outcome.