Postmatch editorial
El Salvador turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Anguilla 0-3 El Salvador. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Elvin Alvarado scored 77' for El Salvador.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: El Salvador led Shots on target 0-14. El Salvador also shaded Total shots 0-41.
Before kickoff, our model made El Salvador the likeliest result at 67.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced El Salvador at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
El Salvador
67.6%
Market result
El Salvador
99.0%
BTTS
Yes
51.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
El SalvadorAnguilla
El Salvador
0
14
Total shots
El SalvadorAnguilla
El Salvador
0
41
Possession
El SalvadorAnguilla
El Salvador
14%
86%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.