Postmatch editorial

Dominican Republic turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Anguilla 0-6 Dominican Republic. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Luis Espinal scored 76' for Dominican Republic.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Dominican Republic led Shots on target 0-8. Dominican Republic also shaded Corners 2-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Dominican Republic the likeliest result at 73.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Dominican Republic at 97.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.08 against a fair line of 1.08. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Dominican Republic

73.0%

Hit

Market result

Dominican Republic

97.1%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

60.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Dominican Republic

Anguilla

Dominican Republic

0

8

Corners

Dominican Republic

Anguilla

Dominican Republic

2

9

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

1.08

Fair odd

1.08

Edge

0.0%

Stake

5.00u

That ticket matched the final outcome.