Postmatch editorial

Cape Verde Islands flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Angola 1-2 Cape Verde Islands. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Dailon Livramento put the first mark on the match 45+2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Angola led Possession 85%-15%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Cape Verde Islands also shaded Shots on target 1-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Angola the likeliest result at 57.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Angola at 50.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Williamhill. The market was offering 2.25 against a fair line of 2.16. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Angola

57.9%

Miss

Market result

Angola

50.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

55.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Angola

Angola

Cape Verde Islands

85%

15%

Shots on target

Cape Verde Islands

Angola

Cape Verde Islands

1

2

Total shots

Angola

Cape Verde Islands

4

4

Model edge

1

Williamhill

Market odd

2.25

Fair odd

2.16

Edge

4.2%

Stake

0.79u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.