Angers SCO
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Le Havre
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Angers SCO 1-1 Le Havre. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Sofiane Boufal put the first mark on the match 13', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Le Havre led Shots on target 5-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Le Havre also shaded Total shots 11-16.
Before kickoff, our model made Angers SCO the likeliest result at 40.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Le Havre at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 10bet. The market was offering 2.74 against a fair line of 2.61. That translated to an edge of 5.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Angers SCO
40.6%
Market result
Le Havre
41.7%
BTTS
Yes
51.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Le HavreAngers SCO
Le Havre
5
8
Total shots
Le HavreAngers SCO
Le Havre
11
16
Possession
Le HavreAngers SCO
Le Havre
44%
56%
Model edge
2
10bet
Market odd
2.74
Fair odd
2.61
Edge
5.0%
Stake
0.69u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.