Postmatch editorial

The script held and Serbia delivered it

The final score was Andorra 1-3 Serbia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Andorra struck first through Guillaume Lopez 17', but Serbia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Serbia led Total shots 4-21. Serbia also shaded Corners 0-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Serbia the likeliest result at 63.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Serbia at 84.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (67.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.24 against a fair line of 1.23. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Serbia

63.0%

Hit

Market result

Serbia

84.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

67.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Serbia

Andorra

Serbia

4

21

Corners

Serbia

Andorra

Serbia

0

10

Shots on target

Serbia

Andorra

Serbia

2

4

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.24

Fair odd

1.23

Edge

0.8%

Stake

1.99u

That ticket matched the final outcome.