American Samoa
American Samoa won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Samoa
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Samoa
The final score was American Samoa 0-2 Samoa. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Jarvis Vaai scored 90+7' for Samoa.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: American Samoa led Total shots 10-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. American Samoa also shaded Shots on target 3-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Samoa the likeliest result at 49.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced No clear call at n/a implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (68.5%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Samoa
49.1%
BTTS
Yes
68.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
American SamoaAmerican Samoa
Samoa
10
2
Shots on target
American SamoaAmerican Samoa
Samoa
3
1
Corners
SamoaAmerican Samoa
Samoa
1
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.