Postmatch editorial

Algeria turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Algeria 2-1 Uganda. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Uganda struck first through Steven Mukwala 6', but Algeria recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Algeria led Corners 7-0. Algeria also shaded Possession 64%-36%.

Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 60.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 67.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.62 against a fair line of 1.58. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Algeria

60.7%

Hit

Market result

Algeria

67.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

54.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Algeria

Algeria

Uganda

7

0

Possession

Algeria

Algeria

Uganda

64%

36%

Shots on target

Algeria

Algeria

Uganda

4

3

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.62

Fair odd

1.58

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.18u

That ticket matched the final outcome.