Postmatch editorial

Algeria turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Algeria 5-1 Mozambique. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Mohamed Amoura scored 80' for Algeria.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Algeria led Shots on target 6-1. Algeria also shaded Total shots 6-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 66.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 80.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.51 against a fair line of 1.48. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Algeria

66.7%

Hit

Market result

Algeria

80.0%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Algeria

Algeria

Mozambique

6

1

Total shots

Algeria

Algeria

Mozambique

6

2

Corners

Algeria

Algeria

Mozambique

9

4

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.51

Fair odd

1.48

Edge

2.0%

Stake

1.48u

That ticket matched the final outcome.