Postmatch editorial

Guinea flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Algeria 1-2 Guinea. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Morlaye Sylla put the first mark on the match 50', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Algeria led Possession 66%-34%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Algeria also shaded Shots on target 5-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 64.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 66.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Marathonbet. The market was offering 4.40 against a fair line of 4.09. That translated to an edge of 7.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Algeria

64.9%

Miss

Market result

Algeria

66.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

59.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Algeria

Algeria

Guinea

66%

34%

Shots on target

Algeria

Algeria

Guinea

5

4

Corners

Algeria

Algeria

Guinea

4

3

Model edge

X

Marathonbet

Market odd

4.40

Fair odd

4.09

Edge

7.6%

Stake

0.47u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.