Postmatch editorial

The script held and Algeria delivered it

The final score was Algeria 3-1 Botswana. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Baghdad Bounedjah scored 90+6' for Algeria.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Algeria led Corners 6-2. Algeria also shaded Shots on target 6-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Algeria the likeliest result at 75.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Algeria at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.29 against a fair line of 1.27. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Algeria

75.1%

Hit

Market result

Algeria

82.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

61.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Algeria

Algeria

Botswana

6

2

Shots on target

Algeria

Algeria

Botswana

6

4

Possession

Algeria

Algeria

Botswana

61%

39%

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.29

Fair odd

1.27

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.84u

That ticket matched the final outcome.