Postmatch editorial

Albania turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Albania 1-0 Latvia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Kristjan Asllani put the first mark on the match 25', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Albania led Shots on target 3-2. Latvia also shaded Corners 2-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Albania the likeliest result at 65.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Albania at 75.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.40 against a fair line of 1.38. That translated to an edge of 1.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Albania

65.6%

Hit

Market result

Albania

75.8%

Hit

BTTS

No

61.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Albania

Albania

Latvia

3

2

Corners

Latvia

Albania

Latvia

2

4

Possession

Albania

Albania

Latvia

62%

38%

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.40

Fair odd

1.38

Edge

1.4%

Stake

1.49u

That ticket matched the final outcome.