Postmatch editorial

Sarajevo flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Aktobe 0-1 Sarajevo. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

The decisive turn arrived late when Francis Kyeremeh scored 90' for Sarajevo.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Aktobe led Shots on target 7-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Aktobe also shaded Possession 63%-37%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Aktobe the favourite at 60.6% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Aktobe

60.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Aktobe

Aktobe

Sarajevo

7

2

Possession

Aktobe

Aktobe

Sarajevo

63%

37%

Corners

Aktobe

Sarajevo

4

4