AFC Bournemouth
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Manchester United
Postmatch editorial
Draw settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Manchester United. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Eli Kroupi 81', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Manchester United led Corners 6-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. AFC Bournemouth also shaded Possession 55%-45%.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester United the likeliest result at 39.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester United at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.2%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester United
39.7%
Market result
Manchester United
45.5%
BTTS
No
50.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Manchester UnitedAFC Bournemouth
Manchester United
6
8
Possession
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Manchester United
55%
45%
Total shots
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Manchester United
16
14
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.