AFC Bournemouth
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Manchester City
Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Manchester City. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Erling Haaland 90+5', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Manchester City led Shots on target 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Manchester City also shaded Total shots 10-14.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 48.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 61.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.74 against a fair line of 1.69. That translated to an edge of 3.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
48.0%
Market result
Manchester City
61.7%
BTTS
Yes
53.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityAFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
2
5
Total shots
Manchester CityAFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
10
14
Possession
Manchester CityAFC Bournemouth
Manchester City
45%
55%
Model edge
2
Dafabet
Market odd
1.74
Fair odd
1.69
Edge
3.0%
Stake
1.05u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.