AFC Bournemouth
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
Leeds United
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Draw
The final score was AFC Bournemouth 2-2 Leeds United. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Sean Longstaff 90+7', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: AFC Bournemouth led Shots on target 7-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. AFC Bournemouth also shaded Corners 12-1.
Before kickoff, our model made AFC Bournemouth the likeliest result at 42.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced AFC Bournemouth at 53.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.08 against a fair line of 2.01. That translated to an edge of 3.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
AFC Bournemouth
42.1%
Market result
AFC Bournemouth
53.2%
BTTS
No
52.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
7
3
Corners
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
12
1
Total shots
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Leeds United
17
10
Model edge
1
Mansionbet
Market odd
2.08
Fair odd
2.01
Edge
3.5%
Stake
0.86u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.