Postmatch editorial
Neither side managed to pull the match clear
The final score was AFC Bournemouth 1-1 Burnley. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Armando Broja 90', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: AFC Bournemouth led Total shots 16-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. AFC Bournemouth also shaded Possession 66%-34%.
Before kickoff, our model made AFC Bournemouth the likeliest result at 55.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced AFC Bournemouth at 67.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
AFC Bournemouth
55.1%
Market result
AFC Bournemouth
67.6%
BTTS
Yes
56.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Burnley
16
4
Possession
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Burnley
66%
34%
Corners
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Burnley
5
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.