Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was AFC Bournemouth 0-0 Brentford. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Neither AFC Bournemouth nor Brentford found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: AFC Bournemouth led Total shots 13-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. AFC Bournemouth also shaded Corners 4-3.
Before kickoff, our model made AFC Bournemouth the likeliest result at 39.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced AFC Bournemouth at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
AFC Bournemouth
39.1%
Market result
AFC Bournemouth
40.0%
BTTS
Yes
58.3%
Match numbers
Total shots
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Brentford
13
5
Corners
AFC BournemouthAFC Bournemouth
Brentford
4
3
Possession
BrentfordAFC Bournemouth
Brentford
48%
52%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.