Postmatch editorial

Udinese bent the night away from the script

The final score was AC Milan 0-3 Udinese. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Davide Bartesaghi put the first mark on the match 27', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Udinese led Shots on target 3-6. AC Milan also shaded Total shots 20-12.

Before kickoff, our model made AC Milan the likeliest result at 62.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced AC Milan at 69.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.48 against a fair line of 1.45. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

AC Milan

62.6%

Miss

Market result

AC Milan

69.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Udinese

AC Milan

Udinese

3

6

Total shots

AC Milan

AC Milan

Udinese

20

12

Possession

AC Milan

AC Milan

Udinese

63%

37%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.48

Fair odd

1.45

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.34u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.