Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was AC Milan 1-0 Inter. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Pervis Estupiñán put the first mark on the match 35', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Inter led Corners 1-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Inter also shaded Possession 37%-63%.

Before kickoff, our model made Inter the likeliest result at 40.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Inter at 42.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.6%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Inter

40.9%

Miss

Market result

Inter

42.1%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

51.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Inter

AC Milan

Inter

1

6

Possession

Inter

AC Milan

Inter

37%

63%

Total shots

Inter

AC Milan

Inter

9

11

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.