Postmatch editorial

Cagliari bent the night away from the script

The final score was AC Milan 1-2 Cagliari. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

AC Milan struck first through Alexis Saelemaekers 2', but Cagliari recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cagliari led Shots on target 3-10. Cagliari also shaded Total shots 16-25.

Before kickoff, our model made AC Milan the likeliest result at 63.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced AC Milan at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.34 against a fair line of 1.32. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

AC Milan

63.2%

Miss

Market result

AC Milan

73.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cagliari

AC Milan

Cagliari

3

10

Total shots

Cagliari

AC Milan

Cagliari

16

25

Possession

Cagliari

AC Milan

Cagliari

48%

52%

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.34

Fair odd

1.32

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.63u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.