AC Milan
Atalanta won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Atalanta
Postmatch editorial
Atalanta bent the night away from the script
The final score was AC Milan 2-3 Atalanta. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Éderson put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: AC Milan led Total shots 20-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. AC Milan also shaded Shots on target 9-5.
Before kickoff, our model made AC Milan the likeliest result at 45.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced AC Milan at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.9%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
AC Milan
45.4%
Market result
AC Milan
44.4%
BTTS
Yes
52.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
AC MilanAC Milan
Atalanta
20
9
Shots on target
AC MilanAC Milan
Atalanta
9
5
Possession
AC MilanAC Milan
Atalanta
58%
42%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.